By AZEEM
IBRAHIM
With the international community failing to mount any meaningful response to the February coup in Myanmar, the military junta is becoming more entrenched in what might appear to be a “new normal” for the country.
However, the months of peaceful civilian protests that have been brutally suppressed by the military authorities are now beginning to morph into a response in kind, and anti-government militias are growing fast. If things continue down this path, we are looking at a bloody civil war.
The fundamental issue is that the people of Myanmar seem determined that this time military dictatorship will not stand. They have tolerated this kind of tyranny for years, and the current military government appears to believe that they will do so once again. But after a decade of apparent progress toward democracy, and consecutive elections that were free, if not exactly fair, things appear to have changed decisively.
Moreover, the excesses of violence committed against ordinary civilians as part of a desperate attempt to impose control over the country have undermined any moral claim to authority that the military used to have in Myanmar.
It used to be the case that the military could claim they were there to protect the people from other threats. But in recent months, the overwhelming majority of people have come to see the military as the biggest threat to their lives and well-being. Dozens of children have been killed already since the coup, shot dead in their own homes or for playing in the streets of their hometowns, to give just one example. That will not be forgotten.
The tragedy of the situation is that amid the brutality dished out by the military, it is understandable that people would want to take up arms to defend themselves. If we found ourselves in their shoes, we would likely also want to do the same. But as things stand, such a conflict appears unwinnable. The result will only be a downward spiral of violence that will turn Myanmar into a failed state.
The only thing that can derail this future, with its grim apparent inevitability, is international intervention. The world has taken a bleak view of the military coup with a consistency that is welcome. But the global reaction has yet to translate into any kind of robust response that might force the military government to change course. Stern disapproval all round, but the decades of dictatorship that the military imposed show they have never had much desire or need for international popularity.
However, virtually all major players have a vested interest in preventing a full-blown civil war in Myanmar. The West will want to avoid a conflict on humanitarian grounds, while regional powers, as well as all other near neighbors, will want to avoid millions more refugees fleeing across Myanmar’s borders.
Virtually all major players have a vested interest in preventing a full-blown civil war in Myanmar.
This is the time for the international community to come together and put its foot down: Impose sanctions and asset seizures on all members of Myanmar’s military, shut down trade with the regime, provide full diplomatic recognition to the opposition National Unity Government, and threaten to provide them with arms and logistics support if necessary.
In return for peaceful surrender and cooperation, the leaders of the military junta can be offered some kind of amnesty for their crimes. That may be distasteful, but if it is necessary to give them an “out” in order to avoid more bloodshed and instability in the country, that may well be a price worth paying. –AN
